B · Engine & Sequencing · §8
How often the deck has what it needs, computed on the exact sixty.
All figures below are hypergeometric on the exact sixty, for an opening seven, before any mulligan and before any selection spell.
Twelve cards dig: four , four , four . At least one of them appears in 80.9% of opening hands, which is why a hand with two lands and one threat is usually keepable even though the threat count in the abstract looks thin.
Two or more lands in 68.6%. At least one one-mana threat in 65.4%. At least one of the eight free spells in 65.4%. The three together, which is the hand this deck most wants, in 23.3%.
The figure worth internalising is the pair rather than the triple: two lands and a one-mana threat is 41.6%, and that hand is a keep with or without the free spell, because twelve cards dig toward one.
A Cutter is in the opening seven 39.9% of the time, and by turn three it is 48.8% on the play and 52.8% on the draw. Slightly better than a coin flip by turn three is the honest description, and it is the reason the deck is built to function without one rather than to assemble one.
Two or more lands falls from 68.6% on seven to 58.9% on six. Eighteen lands is a low count and the six-card hand feels it, which is why the keep bar in §6 is about function rather than about perfection.