Hook Probability Framework

Baseline density numbers for the full shuffled 39 — not literal in-game odds once zones are known.

Legal ceiling6

Legal units in 3924

Legal-hit rate99.5%

Exact next-tier payoffs6 units at 6

Premium rate58.8%

Strategic interpretationThe deck’s primary conversion tier. A legal hit is effectively guaranteed in an unconditioned deck, but Harnessed Dragon or Ruined Rex appears only around 59% of the time before known-zone adjustments. Be willing to Hook an expendable five-Might unit — not automatically one preserving a critical Hold.

Common mistakeTreating Hook as a guaranteed Dragon. The premium rate is ~59% before conditioning, not 100%.

The maths

P(≥1 hit) = 1 −C(N−H, 5)C(N, 5)

A legal hit is not necessarily the premium hit.
Known zones change live probability — the printed ratios are a baseline, not the game.
Track payoffs across hand, play, trash and recycled zones as the game runs.

Baited Hook calculator

Live tool

Legal- and premium-hit rates for any Hook, from live zone counts. Presets load the guide’s baseline density for each tier; edit any field to model the deck as it actually is right now.

Library sizeLegal units remainingPremium payoffs remainingCards viewed

Any legal hit99.5%

≥ 1 premium hit58.8%

Presets are baseline deck-density examples, not guaranteed live-game odds — a legal hit is not the premium hit, and known zones change the real number every cycle. Hook probability framework (§8) →

From the guide — §8 Hook Probability Framework

The following numbers use the full shuffled 39-card composition as a density baseline. They are not literal in-game odds because cards will already be in hand, play, trash and known recycled zones.

Strategic interpretation

One-Might Hook — reasonable when the Deathknell matters, you need to convert a body that would otherwise be lost, any replacement is acceptable, or you are searching specifically for Dignitary or Kennen. Not a high-confidence upgrade.

Two-Might Hook — the premium result is Karthus, but do not perform this conversion merely hoping to find one. Karthus is only strong when the resulting board can exploit it.

Three-Might Hook — generally a liquidation play, not an upgrade play. With no four-Might units, you are trading Karthus for selection and a smaller replacement.

Strategy thesisFive-Might Hook — the deck’s primary conversion tier. A legal hit is effectively guaranteed in an unconditioned deck, but Harnessed Dragon or Ruined Rex appears only around 59% of the time before known-zone adjustments.

⚠ WarningBe willing to Hook away an expendable five-Might unit — but not automatically a five-Might unit that is preserving a critical Hold.

Six-Might Hook — you almost always receive a unit, but the actual seven-Might payoff appears only around one-third of the time before conditioning. Evaluate Hooking Dragon or Rex as: Deathknell or prior play value already received, plus five-card selection, plus a likely replacement, with only a moderate chance of the premium seven — not as a guaranteed Herald or Watcher.