Strategic interpretationThe deck’s primary conversion tier. A legal hit is effectively guaranteed in an unconditioned deck, but Harnessed Dragon or Ruined Rex appears only around 59% of the time before known-zone adjustments. Be willing to Hook an expendable five-Might unit — not automatically one preserving a critical Hold.
Common mistakeTreating Hook as a guaranteed Dragon. The premium rate is ~59% before conditioning, not 100%.
The maths
P(≥1 hit) = 1 −C(N−H, 5)C(N, 5)
A legal hit is not necessarily the premium hit.
Known zones change live probability — the printed ratios are a baseline, not the game.
Track payoffs across hand, play, trash and recycled zones as the game runs.
Baited Hook calculator
Live tool
Legal- and premium-hit rates for any Hook, from live zone counts. Presets load the guide’s baseline density for each tier; edit any field to model the deck as it actually is right now.
Any legal hit99.5%
≥ 1 premium hit58.8%
Presets are baseline deck-density examples, not guaranteed live-game odds — a legal hit is not the premium hit, and known zones change the real number every cycle. Hook probability framework (§8) →
Resolution timeline
1Choose the friendly target
2Opponent may react
3Hook attempts the kill
4Determine actual Might
5Look at five cards
6Play an eligible unit
7New unit and its play trigger resolve
8The original Deathknell resolves
Baited Hook — the kill is an effect
The opponent receives a reaction window before the kill resolves.
A dodged kill plays no unit — but the five cards are still processed and recycled.
Actual Might at death sets the legal ceiling, after every modifier.
The new unit and its play trigger resolve before the original Deathknell.
Sacrifice — the kill is a cost
The body is in the trash before any normal reaction window opens.
If Sacrifice is countered, the killed unit stays dead.
The Deathknell resolves above the spell — before the draw-two and the rune.
Lower tempo than a successful Hook, far more resilient to interaction.