B · Engine & Sequencing · §8

Consistency & Probability

The numbers that change keeps: half of openers have no early body, and two thirds hold an enabler.

The opening four is drawn from the 39 shuffled cards. The Chosen Champion is separately available and is excluded throughout.

P(at least one) = 1 − C(39−K, 4) / C(39, 4)

Opening four

At least one two-Energy body, six copies: 50.25%. At least one selector, six copies of and : 50.25%. At least one outside-hand enabler counting , , and the two Flow spells, nine cards: 66.68%. At least one interaction spell, ten cards: 71.12%. At least one Rhasa: 28.38%. At least one : 28.38%. : 10.26%.

Rules noteJust under half of all opening hands, 49.75%, contain no two-Energy body at all. That is the single most important number in this guide, and it is why the Champion being a guaranteed three-Energy four-Might play matters so much.

Two of a kind

Two or more early bodies: 10.45%. Two or more outside-hand enablers: 22.26%. Neither is common, which is why a hand holding either is a strong keep rather than a normal one.

What the numbers actually say

Enablers are not the problem. Two thirds of hands have one, and the Champion is always there.
Board presence is the problem. Mulligan for the body, not for the engine.
Rhasa at 28.38% per copy is a card you plan toward rather than plan around. The trash discount matters because you will draw one eventually, not because you will open on one.
at 10.26% is usually the wrong card to see early. Get it into the trash and let cast it.

Pilot notePost-board, the number to protect is the enabler count, not the unit count. Cutting below roughly seven outside-hand enablers turns the Legend into a blank and leaves you holding payoffs.