B · Engine & Sequencing · §8

Consistency Framework

Sixteen shuffled units in thirty-nine cards — about three opening hands in five contain a natural two-Energy unit.

The Chosen Champion gives reliable access to a threat, but the shuffled unit count still matters.

Opening-unit probability

P(≥1 shuffled unit in 4) = 1 − C(23,4) / C(39,4) ≈ 89.2%

Consequently, approximately 10.8% of initial hands contain no shuffled unit before the mulligan.

Opening two-Energy unit probability

The shuffled deck contains eight two-Energy units: two Inferna, three Lonely Poro and three Mournful Witness.

P(≥1 two-Energy unit in 4) = 1 − C(31,4) / C(39,4) ≈ 61.8%

Strategy thesisSilent guarantees a turn-four threat, but only about three opening hands in five contain a natural two-Energy unit before mulligan decisions.

Sideboarding implication

⚠ WarningDo not casually replace units with spells. The Game 1 shuffled unit count is already 16, and the default post-board floor is also 16 unless the matchup specifically rewards a highly reactive configuration.

This is why the cleanest sideboard plans exchange Mask or Cleave for spells, exchange Inferna for Brynhir, add Ferrous while removing a spell, or switch Chosen Champion without changing the shuffled deck’s unit count at all.