Star Wars: Unlimited / Lab / Draw odds
Draw odds
Six cards off fifty, three copies of a name, and two more every regroup phase. A three-of is in your opening hand a third of the time, and the mulligan is worth more here than in most games because it redraws the whole hand rather than part of it.
32.4%
in your opening four — before any mulligan, either seat
| Round | Cards seen | Either seat |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 41.4% |
| 2 | 10 | 49.6% |
| 3 | 12 | 57.0% |
| 4 | 14 | 63.6% |
| 5 | 16 | 69.5% |
| 6 | 18 | 74.7% |
| 7 | 20 | 79.3% |
| 8 | 22 | 83.3% |
If you mulligan
54.3% of holding one after the mulligan, against 32.4% in the hand you are throwing back.
The whole hand is shuffled in and 6 are drawn again, so the second hand comes off a full deck and is independent of the first. One mulligan only, and the new hand must be kept, so this is the chance of holding a copy after taking it rather than of being offered a choice.
Every figure is a hypergeometric distribution evaluated exactly, not a simulation, so nothing here moves between page loads and any of it can be checked by hand. The rules it rests on are this game’s own: Rule 1.6.1.d deals six. Rule 5.5.1.b draws each player two every regroup phase, so both seats draw alike. Rule 1.6.1.e allows one mulligan: the whole hand is shuffled back, six are drawn, and that hand must be kept. Both seats draw alike, which is why there is one column here and two in the Riftbound version.